While consumers might’ve been eager to flaunt bold, bright, and adventurous lip colors when masks first came off, consumer luxury cosmetic preferences are shifting back to pre-pandemic norms. Colors that make sense for daily wear are on the rise, while bold colors are struggling to stay competitive.
The team here at Simporter used our White Space AI tool to analyze 30 luxury lipstick colors to forecast what will be trending in 2022.
In with the new, out with the bold
The graphic below breaks down the six lipstick colors we believe possess the lowest potential for growth in 2022. Lipstick color opportunity scores are determined by looking at both share of voice (a leading indicator of market share) and year-over-year growth rate.
Our predicted loser’s list hosts colors that have one thing in common: they’re bold, adventurous, and not for the everyday consumer. Let’s dig into each one.
Purple
Purple is a niche color option for the boldest consumers. We predict Purple lipsticks like this one from Lady Gaga’s Haus Laboratories hold the lowest potential for growth in 2022 and will decline 86.29 percent. While the color has a decent 2.32 percent share of voice, it won’t be enough to stop its negative momentum.
Purple can be a flattering color as it comes in a wide range of hues, from lavender to eggplant to plum. Cool purples tend to work best on those with fairer complexion, which won’t be as enticing for a consumer base hyper-focused on skin-tone inclusivity.
Berry
Our AI models predict Berry lipstick colors have a tough road ahead in 2022, so don’t be surprised to see this color decline over 80 percent. While the berry hype usually spikes in the fall, it’s one of those transitional shades that transcends seasons and can be worn year-round.
Berry lipsticks will certainly still be on retail store shelves — Selena Gomez’s Lip Souffle Matt Lip Cream (Shade: Heroic) is sure to continue selling. Still, brands should take note of consumer preferences shifting towards softer, more approachable colors like Rose and Nude that give wearers more day to night flexibility.
Green
While it might be hard to believe, Green lipsticks like this one from Gucci have more applications outside of achieving the perfect Wicked Witch of the West look. It’s bold and surprisingly complimentary to many skin tones. However, It’s a challenging color to pull off, and consumers don’t have the time or effort to commit to figuring it out, so our team predicts this color will see 97.82 percent negative growth in 2022. Instead of Green, consumers will opt for bold blues and easy-to-wear colors like Red, Rose, and Nude.
Black
While you might’ve picked up black lipstick up for your latest Halloween look, it can also add emotion and glamour to an everyday look (Rihanna and Beyonce rock this statement color).
While Black has a range of cool and warm undertones that work well on many skin tones, it tends to settle into dry patches and look uneven, so our team predicts this color will see a 27.83 percent negative growth rate in 2022.
Our team was surprised to see Black lipsticks hold a significant 3.09 percent share of voice, but that won’t be enough to slow the color’s negative growth. While Black might have been fun to play around with during the pandemic, consumers are returning to regular routines and need lipsticks that are easy to wear.
Put simply, the 2000s are calling, and they want their black lipstick back!
Plum
Plum, a very close cousin of Purple and Berry, doesn’t look like it’ll be trending in the new year. The color holds a smaller 0.64 percent share of voice and 47.83 negative growth potential. While flattering on various skin tones during the day and at night, products like Givenchy’s Plum Lipstick can look like a bruise (not in a good way) if not applied properly. So, consumers will prefer colors like Red, Gold, and Coral that require less thought and work with nearly every skin tone, look, and environment.
Yellow
Yellow lipstick colors are not easy to pull off, but Yellow is an excellent option for the adventurous consumer for layering and achieving the perfect ombre lip. Unfortunately, Yellow’s color mixing potential won’t be enough to impact its bleak outlook for 2022. While our team doesn’t predict this bold color will experience negative growth, it only has a modest 2.17 percent growth potential.
However, as people adjust to their pre-pandemic routines, they don’t have nearly as much time to spend on their daily looks. Instead of carefully applying colors to achieve the perfect color, consumers would rather grab a lipstick and toss it in their bag. If brands can adhere to a “minimal effort, big impact” mindset when releasing and promoting luxury lipsticks, they’re sure to win in 2022.
Are you taking notice of what’s in or what’s out?
Luxury Cosmetics brands should pivot their business away from colors heading in the wrong direction and focus their R&D on colors that their consumers will love. If you stay on top of current trends and consistently adapt your product offerings using a data-based approach, 2022 will be a massive year for your brand.
For more insights on luxury cosmetics trends, check out our recent webinar here. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.