Consumers felt the financial impact of the last 18 months, and as a result, they have started to take more critical notice of their typical spending patterns. Every dollar counts, and getting maximum value is crucial when it comes to something like their daily beauty routines. They’re increasingly aware of what’s in (and not in) their day-to-day beauty products and care much more about making the right choices spending their hard-earned money.
Brands may have previously positioned themselves properly to earn customer trust and loyalty, but they have to stay on top of trending and declining themes to remain competitive.
Our predicted loser’s list for 2022
Using our White Space AI tool, the team here at Simporter analyzed 35 themes to predict which will have the greatest growth potential, specifically within the Luxury Cosmetics industry, in 2022. Our software analyzes social media mentions, consumer sentiment patterns, and search traffic to make highly accurate trend predictions.
Take a look below.
Recycled
Our team predicts Recycled will see the most dramatic losses of all themes in 2022, declining 247.83 percent. Even though environmental consciousness is top-of-mind and consumers are asking for increased transparency from brands, they aren’t as concerned with their favorite products’ packaging or supply chain as companies may think.
Even though we hear the word all the time, consumers have trouble trusting the term “Recycled.” There’s a lack of transparency around Recycled materials. The term is loosely applied in marketing campaigns and product labels, so consumers have difficulty knowing what is recycled versus what claims to be recycled. Plus, consumers simply arent’ as concerned with the supply chain, packaging, or recycle-focused aspects of products as they once were.
However, big-box retailers Ulta Beauty has made steps to bring transparency to this space. The brand has vetted products from OSEA, Eva NYC, and others for Sustainable Packaging. At least 50 percent of their packaging stems from recycled or bio-sourced materials (recyclable or refillable).
If other big-box retailers (i.e., Nordstrom, Sephora, Bloomingdales) can vet the brands they offer in-store and online, Recycled is sure to stabilize and even make a return to consumer focus.
So, instead of purchasing recycled products, consumers will gravitate towards products marketed as sustainable or vegan, which hold more weight.
Celebrity Endorsed
Celebrity-Endorsed brands and products won’t have as much influence in 2022 — our team predicts this theme to decline 97.83 percent. While celebrities will continue to influence consumer purchasing decisions strongly, their impact is diluted with the rise of Instagram, TikTok, and other social media platforms.
Today, almost anyone can become an influencer, contributing to the rise of influencer marketing. Consumers are more likely to trust their favorite TikTok influencer’s opinions over a celebrity endorsement. Why? People feel stronger connections with social media thought leaders who feel genuine, accessible, and honest. Celebrities often feel untouchable and intangible to most consumers, so people connecting with others via social media will continue to become more popular due to interactions feeling more authentic.
Hypoallergenic
Hypoallergenic products like this LANEIGE sleeping mask claim to result in fewer allergic reactions than non-hypoallergenic products. If you don’t know what that means, you’re not alone. We predict that the Hypoallergenic theme will decline 90.69 percent in 2022, even with its relatively small 0.12 percent share of voice.
Items labeled as Hypoallergenic can be misleading, and consumers won’t put up with ambiguity in 2022. After 18+ months of feeling uncertainty in the world, economy, and personal lives, consumers will opt for products with more substantial, more legitimate claims like Vegan or Organic.
Paraben-Free
Parabens are common ingredients used as preservatives in cosmetics. They protect the shelf-life of many consumer favorites by preventing bacteria and mold. They are also known to disrupt the body’s hormones, harm fertility rates, impact reproductive organs, and even increase cancer risk. So, it makes sense that consumers have tried cutting this out of their beauty routines for some time. As a result, our team at Simporter predicts Paraben-Free will experience a 47.83 percent negative growth rate in 2022.
While this will certainly still be a top priority for some consumers, most will shift their attention to products that explicitly state they’re Talc-Free or Vegan, like this bronzer from Westman Atelier. As consumers become more aware of the harmful side effects of ingredients like Talcum Powder, they’ll switch their shopping habits to eliminate trending cosmetics ingredients.
Organic
While it seems like Organic products like this one from Kora Organics have been all the rage the past few years, the theme is predicted to experience a 28.83 percent negative growth rate in 2022. This industry giant holds a 6.73 percent share of voice and has dominated consumer conversations for years.
It seems like consumers have wanted everything to be organic, from what they pick up in the grocery store to what they put on their skin. Plus, Organic products only need to have a small percentage of organic ingredients to label themselves as such. So, just like Recycled and Hypoallergenic, the claim can be challenging to trust.
As consumers get more particular about what they use in their daily beauty routines, they’ll prefer Vegan over Organic products. People will spend more time researching and understanding their favorite products. While Organic tells you one thing, Vegan adds another layer of assurance that products align with your standards and expectations. Simply put, products listed as Vegan will have a much stronger claim than those labeled as Organic.
For more on how we predict Vegan cosmetics products to perform in 2022, check out our blog here.
Our advice for 2022
Consumers are on a mission to pull back the curtain on their favorite products. Instead of blindly purchasing trendy, buzzwordy products, shoppers want to know what they’re buying and what’s in it. Buyers won’t have time for loose marketing claims and will move to products with more substantial claims.
For brands that want to compete in 2022, it would be wise to focus on ingredients and trends that actually are what they claim. Consumers won’t be fooled easily by false or misleading claims as they have in recent years.
You can watch our recent webinar 2022 Luxury Cosmetics Trends for more insights on luxury cosmetics trends here on YouTube. If you’re ready to see Simporter AI in action and learn what it can do for you, request a demo on our website.